You may recall that in early December 2024 (and doesn’t that feel SUCH a long time ago?) I asked various industry luminaries to make predictions about a number of property market variables for what was then the year ahead – 2025.
Well, that year is now behind us and the results are in!
To remind you, the five brave contestants were Simon Whale (Head of Kerfuffle Club and Relocation Agent Network), Tony Morris (Sales Trainer and Author), Iain McKenzie (CEO at The Guild of Property Professionals), Michael Day (Trainer and Mentor at Integra Property Services.) and Russell Quirk (PR Consultant, PIE Columnist and TV Presenter.)
These were the questions asked of our participants…
1. How many resale properties will complete in 2025?
2. How many resale properties will be listed in 2025?
3. What will be the average % of resale fall throughs in 2025?
4. What % of resale property that leaves estate agent books in 2025, will estate agents be paid on? (i.e. what % exchange & complete as opposed to withdraw unsold).
5. What will be the Average Sale Agreed price for resale properties in 2025?
And their predictions?
To assess the results, I appointed “Mr Stato” himself Chris Watkin, who as you would expect, took his responsibilities very seriously and supplied me with his detailed assessment on December 29th , just before the year end.
This is that assessment from Mr Watkin…
Here is a clear judging report, based on the reference numbers and using live intelligence from TwentyEA, Land Registry and HMRC.
Completions are not fully baked yet, but exchange data plus new build disclosures allow us to judge within roughly a 2% accuracy range.
+ Benchmark figures used
+ Completions: 1.20m
+ Listings: 1.71m
+ Fall throughs: 23.7%
+ Agents paid: 55.3%
+ Average agreed sale price: £351,000
Assessment by pundit
Simon Whale
Strong on listings and agents paid, but materially high on fall throughs and significantly high on price. Overall too optimistic on pricing and market friction.
Tony Morris
Under on listings, high on agents paid, and low on pricing accuracy. Directionally interesting, but the numbers do not line up closely with the data.
Iain McKenzie
Very close on completions, within c.4%.
Reasonable on fall throughs and agents paid.
Closest on average agreed price.
Across all five metrics, this is the most consistently accurate set of predictions.
Michael Day
Excellent on listings and fall throughs.
However, completions are materially under and pricing is too low. A mixed card with some sharp calls but not the overall winner.
Russell Quirk
Spot on completions.
Listings materially overstated, fall throughs high, agents paid low. Strong headline call, weaker supporting numbers.
Final judgement:
Winner overall: Iain McKenzie
Best balance across volume, pricing and transactional realism.
Runner up: Russell Quirk
Nails completions, but too far off elsewhere.
Third place: Michael Day
Strong on market mechanics, weaker on volumes and price.
This is exactly why judging on multiple metrics, not a single headline number, matters. One good call does not equal overall accuracy.
Thanks to Chris Watkin and all who were brave enough to provide their insights and…
CONGRATULATIONS to Iain McKenzie on such a wide range of accurate predictions!
I’d love to know what your own predictions are for 2026, but are you brave enough to publicly share them?
It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year… and I’m not talking about Christmas
